 |
Streetcar is more aptly named No Real Public Desire
Wednesday, June 23, 1999
By BRUCE RAMSEY
Sound Transit's light-rail plan continues to rumble through Seattle's neighborhoods, causing some opposition but not, so far, derailment. In contrast to a certain baseball stadium, the people did vote for it.
Two who doubt the voters' wisdom are Seattle transportation consultants John Niles and Dick Nelson. Both are senior fellows at the Denver-based Center for the New West. Niles is owner of the consulting firm Global Telematics. Nelson was a Democratic state representative from 1978 to 1992, and helped write the law that authorizes the rail system that he now opposes.
"When you're a legislator," Nelson says, "you don't have a lot of time to think. You go from meeting to meeting and you focus on all kinds of subjects." He says he relied on the planners.
Rail planners have a vision: Build a rail line through a low-density city. Reroute the bus system to feed the rail line. Encourage stores and high-rise housing at the train stations. Over 50 to 75 years, development happens where people get on buses and trains.
They call this vision "transit-oriented development," which is really rail-oriented development.
The trend of the 20th century has been car-oriented development. Consider Southcenter. Built at the crossroads of two freeways, it has 150 stores, all surrounded by free parking. Within a mile and a half are another 150 stores surrounded by free parking. On the street, nobody walks.
The planners envision "urban villages" where people walk. And there are some fine old districts, such as Broadway and Wallingford, where people do walk. But where do you see the big new Eagle Hardwares, Home Depots, Costcos and Targets? In the city? Yes. In old business districts? Mainly not.
Consider small retail centers with three or more stores. Greater Seattle has 450 of them. Together, they have enough retail space for 50 large malls. They are scattered all over.
Today's retail chains, says Niles, locate stores by a formula that ignores transit. "We talk to store planners who say, 'Transit? What share of the market is that? It doesn't matter.'"
Would a sleek new streetcar make a difference in land development? Only a minor one, Niles and Nelson say. It simply won't attract enough people. Rail is an engineer's dream at moving people from A to B, but real people don't want to go from A to B. They want to go everywhere.
In this area, fewer than 18 percent of workers commute to jobs in downtown Seattle -- a figure that has been falling. Nationwide, only about 20 percent of all trips are work trips. That figure has also been falling.
If the rail line is built, a few percent of the commuters will use it, just as a few percent use Portland's Max and San Francisco's BART. But the train riders will not feel bound to shop and eat at the station.
Says Niles, "There's a sense in transit-oriented development that we want one of everything" -- one supermarket, one cleaners, one day-care center, one ethnic restaurant. It looks nice on paper, but it won't satisfy real people. "It goes against the way consumers work," Niles says.
Planners envision us buying a small bag of groceries every day and walking home, as our grandparents did. But daily grocery shopping has been dead since the refrigerator. "The station wagon and the SUV are nails in the coffin," Niles says.
The world at the beginning of the 21st century is one of increasing mobility; one in which not just every family has a car, but every adult member has one. "We don't find much recognition by planners that this world exists," says Niles.
Niles and Nelson fear that Seattle will spend billions on a rail line that the market ignores.
What's the alternative to rail? There's a whole menu of choices, from toll roads to telecommuting, bus lanes to jitneys. Employers are already responding to congestion by moving farther outward, continuing the trend toward dispersion.
In a car-oriented world, buses are more practical than trains. "The bus system here is wonderful," says Niles. He recalls how his Washington, D.C., commute got longer when bus routes were reoriented to feed train stations. Nelson, who rides the No. 5 bus to downtown Seattle, praises the value of bus service to commuters, kids, the poor and disabled.
"I've tried to be a transit supporter and find ways to make transit work in the modern economy," Nelson says. "It certainly isn't easy when you spend all the money on a technological fix that will fail."
Is his objection too late? After all, people did vote for the train.
Nelson grins. "The bulldozers haven't started up yet."
Bruce Ramsey's column appears Wednesdays. His e-mail address is bruceramsey@seattle-pi.com.
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER COLUMNIST
· A 2nd former Boeing employee files whistle-blower complaint
· Cruise lines get 10-year deal at Pier 91
· Small shops think 'local'
· Aerospace Notebook: In tanker race, Northrop loses a bargaining point
· Yahoo shares climb on word of new bid
· Airlines gearing up to cut more flights, possibly jobs
· Educators urged to adapt to students' tech lifestyles
· FDIC chief says government needs a rescue 'exit strategy'
· There's no system to monitor bailout funds, federal auditors find
· Business Briefing
· Technology Briefing
more
101 Elliott Ave. W.
Seattle, WA 98119
(206) 448-8000
Home Delivery: (206) 464-2121 or (800) 542-0820
seattlepi.com serves about 1.7 million unique visitors
and 30 million page views each month.
Send comments to newmedia@seattlepi.com
Send investigative tips to iteam@seattlepi.com
©1996-2008 Seattle Post-Intelligencer
Terms of Use/Privacy Policy
